Why mess up your reputation as a soothsayer and prognosticator par excellence by actually trying to guess the hard stuff? Far better to bat 1.000 by pointing out the easy stuff. In that spirit, here’s my predictions for 2024.
Think illegal immigration is bad? Wait for 2024
Illegal immigrants are just as capable as anyone when it comes to reading the news. They can see Biden’s polling numbers. The time to enter is clearly going to be before next year if Trump returns to power and closes the border.
Illegal immigrants will still flow to blue cores
If your intention is to remain in the country when the orange jefe returns to power do you want to be hanging out in Missouri or Arizona where the local authorities will probably only be too happy to cooperate with INS? Or would you rather reside somewhere that has a local government that will resist alerting the immigration authorities about your parking tickets? Chartered buses and planes have always been a distraction because the vast majority of the illegal immigrants moving to NY or Chicago are doing so under their own impetus. Why not go where they love you (or at least have “right to shelter” laws)?
On a related note Rob Henderson talks about “luxury beliefs”, the virtue signaling declarations that the privileged can make because they won’t be touched by the negative consequences of their slogans actually becoming policy. For example, calls to “Defund the Police” when somebody lives in a gated community. It’s becoming more and more clear that sanctuary cities have relied on baddies like Trump to a) actually keep illegal immigration low and b) take the political heat for doing so. Absent Trump the situation has become untenable.
Trump will be the Republican nominee
Any other outcome would require massive, unprecedented polling error.
I also advise keeping an eye on anybody who is trying to flog the narrative that DeSantis or Haley can pull off a miracle. That smacks of denialism that borders on self harm.
Trump will be on the ballot in all 50 states
Consensus pundit opinion (CPO) is that the USSC will smack down states like Colorado and Maine. The only real question is whether the decision will be unanimous.
But consider this as well: in the aftermath of the Colorado decision the WaPo editorial board, no friend to Trump, published a piece that urged the USSC to act quickly and decisively in reversing the Colorado state court. When California’s lieutenant governor loudly complained that Colorado was hogging all the action Gavin Newsom rebuffed her, labeling such ballot shenanigans a “distraction”. The court in Colorado, and Maine’s Secretary of State, aren’t just out of step with the majority of the country—they’re also out of sync with the moderate wing of their own party.
Plus the optics are horrible. You need to truly be inside the bubble not to realize that this looks like elites trying to short circuit the democratic process because Trump will win at the ballot box. It looks desperate, and corrupt.
Newsom and Fetterman will tack to the center
Speaking of Newsom he has an ulterior motive for trying to look like the grown up in the room. Regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins this November the victor will be term limited. In fact for Democrats like Newsom or John Fetterman a Trump victory might be preferable given the country’s fondness for alternating control of the White House between the two political parties every eight years. With 2028 a short four years away now is the time to establish one’s moderate bona fides.
Hence Newsom debating DeSantis on Fox News and Fetterman dissing the “pinkos” at Harvard as well as claiming that the southern border is in crisis. Watching these two go head to head as they try to claim the Democratic nomination will be a clash of the titans. At this early juncture I could see Fetterman pulling it off (This is not a prediction! I don’t want to mess up my record.)
Why? There is a conflict in the Democratic Party right now between the woke college types who make up the bulk of the volunteer class and moderates (Ruy Texeira, James Carville, etc.) calling for a return to blue collar politics. If Trump wins in November I expect the Texeira camp to emerge victorious and Fetterman would be their natural candidate. He is the most Trumpian in his willingness to disregard convention and say “Fuck” in an interview. (Actually, has Trump ever gone that far?)
If Fetterman does pull off the task of getting the Democratic nomination he could easily win the whole banana in 2028. He has more charisma in his little finger than DeSantis or Haley and he seems more genuinely working class (read populist) than either of them.
Drill baby drill
Saudi Arabia is no longer a dependable US ally. That became clear when the country refused US pleas to boost oil production to a) lower gas prices at US pumps and b) undercut Russian funding for its war in Ukraine.
As a countermeasure US hydrocarbon production has soared (yes, it’s also due to Europe trying to wean itself off of Russian natural gas). Expect domestic production to stay high for the foreseeable future. The Saudis do not like Biden and would far prefer to deal with Trump—cutting production in the October time frame isn’t inconceivable but any potential impact would be blunted as long as the US continues with current production levels.
Woke has peaked and the pendulum swings back
Any terror movement relies on its ability to intimidate. Ask Robespierre. That is blunted when calls for cancellation fall on deaf ears and public figures like Dave Chappelle or Ricky Gervais thumb their noses at the scolds with impunity.
In games like chess there’s more to winning the game than just protecting your pieces however—there’s also depriving the opponent of his. The forced resignation of Claudine Gay sends the unmistakable message that the arrayed forces of the establishment were unequal to the task of defending somebody who checked all the boxes (except for the one marked “Did not plagiarize” of course.)
The resistance starts early
The underlying social forces that led to protests and riots in 2020 haven’t been resolved, despite the wishful thinking of lefty types who hoped that the return of the “good guys” to power might put a cap on things. The twin influences of the war in Gaza plus the impending US election are going to make for an interesting summer, especially if Trump’s lead in the polls holds up. Stay safe out there.
Fetterman I think I can support....at this early stage. But Newsom, not so much. I don't trust any politician with hair like he's got. Walter Kirn described Newsom as a shark fin, slicing through the water, not even getting wet. I thought that was pretty funny.
Gretchen Whitmer will be the Democratic nominee in 2028. After the 2022 midterms I thought DeSantis would be the Republican but now that is in doubt.